Does it pay to become a landlord right now?

As unemployment claims spike along with coronavirus cases and laid-off workers struggle to make rent payments, many small landlords with mortgages to pay are beginning to feel the pain.

While there’s no doubt that owning a rental property comes with risk, most seasoned investors take a long-term approach. According to a recent survey from Auction.com, 64% of investors who primarily buy investment properties as rentals said they planned to increase or keep their acquisitions, despite the pandemic.

A new report from RealtyHop helps potential investors determine how much risk they’d be taking on. The Property Investment Index details residential capitalization rates and net operating income across the 100 most populous real estate markets in the U.S. to help investors research properties from a landlord perspective.

This August, the average capitalization rate across the 100 cities was 3.61%, while the average property tax rate was 1.14%.

Detroit, surprisingly, had the highest capitalization rate of any city in the U.S at 14.39%. Rent prices there increased to a median of $852 per month across all listings, compared with $783 in the previous quarter. Despite rent prices rising, the city’s cap rate was tempered by an increase in real estate prices to $57,500.

Meanwhile, at 1.39%, San Francisco had the lowest capitalization rate of any city in the U.S., as rent prices in the Bay Area fell dramatically due to the pandemic. Despite the city’s low cap rate, occupancy in the Bay Area remains one of the strongest across the country.

In Boston, where average home prices are $750,000 and the tax rate is 0.73%, the aggregate yearly rent was $35,208 while average maintenance costs were $7,500 making the net operating income $22,260 with a cap rate of 3.26%.

Meanwhile, another new report from apartmentguide.com shows rent prices across the U.S. actually increased from mid-year 2019 to mid-year 2020. During that time period, studio apartments jumped 5.37%, one-bedroom apartments climbed 1.6% and two-bedroom units were up 3.46%.

In Boston, where coronavirus cases peaked in April, studio apartment rents were down 6.31% from April to June 2020, while two-bedroom rents were down 4.91%.

While the apartment.com report noted that local supply and demand have influenced the change in rent prices, the pandemic and subsequent economic downturn are disproportionately affecting certain markets.

“Looking more closely at the rent price trends in these cities from April to June, it appears the 2020 changes are more indicative of current economic conditions than the national or even state-level trends,” the report said.

Why pandemic buyers are headed to the ‘burbs

Once viewed as a symbol of 1970s and ’80s urban flight, the suburbs are in demand again, as buyers increasingly look outside of urban areas in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic and recession.

According to a new report released by real estate firm Marcus & Millichap, the pandemic has not only altered people’s housing choices, it’s also changing where they want to live.

Nationwide lockdowns have been the key driver of the change, according to the study, leading many Americans to seek larger residences in order to accommodate home offices, home gyms, online learning and a wish for private outdoor space.

Practically overnight, the lockdowns have also led to another huge demographic change: the working-from-home phenomenon. In March, millions of American workers, mostly in white collar industries, suddenly found themselves working from home. Nearly five months later, it doesn’t look like they’re going back to the office anytime soon.

According to the Pew Research Center, nearly 60% of American workers are now working remotely. Compared to just 7% of workers prior to the pandemic.

Last month, Google announced that its employees will continue working from home until summer of 2021. Meanwhile, Twitter’s employees have been told they can stay home indefinitely, and Facebook expects half its workforce to be remote within the next 10 years.

Which begs the question: why pay high rents in places like San Francisco and New York City anymore?

“The ability to work remotely has diminished the value of a short commute in the home-search equation, making lower-cost suburban locations more favorable,” read the Marcus & Millichap report.

While some employees might be waiting it out to see if the trend lasts before committing to a home purchase in an “un-commutable” area, a Harris Poll conducted in April showed that 40% of city dwellers across the country were considering moves to less densely populated areas in the face of the pandemic.

“People will be much more cautious about living in high-density areas with so many people nearby,” predicted National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun in a recent statement.

Although COVID-driven migration is intensifying the shift to suburbia, the preference for suburban locations among older millennials was already happening prior to the pandemic. With 60% of millennials now in their 30s, many of whom are considering children, the importance of public schools is an emerging factor in homebuying decisions, according to the report.

Meanwhile, social unrest and a spike in urban crime rates could lead to more migration to the suburbs, potentially upending and reversing urban trends of the last 50 years.

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